Two British soldiers have been killed in Northern Ireland. This is the first fatal attack on British soldiers in just over a decade.

We will know in the next few hours days whether the Real IRA (which has claimed responsibility) will be able to trigger a fresh round of violence - or whether the communities will remain calm. The shooting is a litmus test of the success of the remarkable NI Peace Process.

I was in NI in the 1970s and I could see the level of hatred in parts of both communities. But we should not over-estimate the level of violence even then. With the exception of 1972, more people were killed on the roads of NI than were killed in the fighting. NI was never quite as violent as the media suggested.

But the media - both in the UK and overseas - took a keen interest in the fighting. They could not believe that such fighting could be taking place in any part of western Europe - it was assumed that the fighting had ended in western Europe in 1945. Additionally, there was a lingering fear that NI was the forerunner of a new era of low intensity warfare (now more commonly called "terrorism) and that by being in NI they were reporting on what could happen elsewhere in the developed western world. (The conflicts in former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and then 9/11 - September 11 2001 - suggest that their suspicions were correct).

The violence gradually wound down about a decade ago. First the British Government gradually met many of the economic and political demands from the late 1960s of the oppressed Catholic minority. The British would not withdraw from the tragic province but there were many other reforms that they did introduce while they stayed.

Second, the British Government pumped far more money into NI - traditionally the poorest part of the UK. Economic wealth gave people a renewed interest in peace.

Third, the Republic in the south had entered what is now the European Union (formerly European Economic Community) at the time the UK did (1973) and started to benefit from the immense EEC/EU investment. It became the "Gaelic Tiger", with a booming economy. The people in the south were now far more interested in making money than making war. Besides, the UK and Republic were growing together inside the EEC/EU and so for the NI Catholics seeking independence from the British the struggle seemed far less relevant if the Republic was going to be more of a partner anyway in NI affairs.

Fourth, the main religious groups realized that they had helped create the violence and so became more moderate in their teachings. The province also became more secular as people acquired a greater sense of materialism and less Christian extremism.

Finally, there was a growing sense of combat fatigue. The traditional men of violence wanted to retire. Three decades was a long time for low intensity warfare. The UK and US mediators were able to make the most of the new window of opportunity and so encouraged the players to get together. Meanwhile a young generation came into being that was tired of the old political ideas and so wanted wealth rather than re-fighting the old struggles. The conflict was becoming irrelevant.

The Real IREA was born around this time because it did not want to relax its struggle. It broke away from the mainstream IRA which wanted to make a deal. The fighters had no role in a post-conflict society. Fighting was their core business and so they wanted to continue. But their IRA comrades realized that the British were not going to be driven out of the province and so they were willing to recognize the inevitable and so make a deal. The Real IRA was - and apparently is - unwilling to recognize the inevitability of the British presence.

We will know from the NI community reactions in the next few hours and days whether the Real IRA is able to revive the old tribal hatreds and memories. Or whether the ordinary people have now tasted the pleasures of peace and so don't want to go back to the weariness of war.

This topic was discussed on Seven's Sunrise on Monday 9th March. To see the footage and read the transcript follow this link.